From landline to smartphone 

There is a popular analogy among avid EV-market watchers. We have moved into an era when driving a diesel or petrol car is like communicating via a landline and dial-up internet. That makes owning a hybrid plug-in vehicle (PHEV) akin to the proverbial brick phone and a full battery electric vehicle (BEV) like owning the latest high-performance smartphone. The whole category is being redefined. A BEV is not just a car: it is mobile AI, hyper-intelligent and virtually autonomous, the future on wheels, the machine that embodies machine learning, accelerating silently and effortlessly into the distance. 

The comparison works because in both cases we’re talking about disruption of a huge industry meeting a basic human need: communication and transportation. In the case of communication, the limits of what consumers thought was possible exploded beyond all recognition. We are witnessing the early stages of something similar in road transport. In fact, the latest BEVs charge much faster than a smartphone and their key component - the battery - can now be cycled up to 5,000 or more times, giving them effectively almost infinite lifespans. If you’ve never bought a BEV before, when you do so it may be the last car you ever buy. 

Transport electrification is a once-in-a-generation megatrend for energy transition investors. But it’s highly competitive and dynamic, so what is the best and safest route to play it? For many years, the stock answer was Tesla, the original EV household name. For several reasons that’s no longer true. As its leader got distracted, Tesla has rapidly been eclipsed. It is now more incumbent than disruptor. A decade from now it may well all look different again. But right now, it’s Chinese EV manufacturers (OEMs) who have the momentum. In a price-sensitive industry, they enjoy the most sustainable competitive advantages. An advanced domestic battery supply chain and huge manufacturing capacity enables them to deliver consistently cheaper, better cars, which are now entering global markets at a different scale. That competitiveness draws on a decade of fierce rivalry to establish domestic dominance. 

There are many contenders to the EV throne: Geely, SAIC, Chery, Changan, Leapmotor, XPeng, Xiaomi, the list goes on. But the biggest and most internationally recognised is undoubtedly BYD - “Build Your Dreams” - now the world’s largest EV manufacturer. Over the past decade, backed by high profile international investors like Berkshire Hathaway, BYD grew rapidly to become the leading EV OEM in China, selling 3.5 million cars there alone in 2025. As China matures, the obvious next step is to take on the whole world.

Building the Energized Portfolio: Should BYD be Included? 

Energized started as a newsletter, but quickly also became a portfolio designed to test theories in practice. We believe it is important to back our own analysis and put our money where our mouth is. The basic objective of the Energized Portfolio is to identify and invest in up to 20 outstanding companies that are actively contributing to global energy system transformation and are good long-term investments in their own right. Our fundamental thesis is that both aspects should ultimately be closely aligned. If energy underpins the entire global economy, the energy technologies and infrastructure solutions that improve efficiency and productivity, while mitigating environmental impact of legacy energies, should also be the ones that scale commercially.

Any investment strategy needs some sort of edge - and ours is designed to function on two levels. First, in understanding energy systems: how the dynamics of how the classic security-affordability-sustainability “energy trilemma” is converging around electrified technologies to foster a future of more flexible, convenient and abundant production and consumption of energy. That is of course a very complex, nuanced picture with multiple positive and negative feedback loops competing against each other, creating all sorts of next-order effects. Second, in blending that understanding with commercial and financial analysis: to identify and track relevant companies with sustainable competitive advantage.

The investment approach rests on four main thematic pillars: electrification, renewables, flexibility and efficiency, with specific investments chosen for key sub-segments. For example, electrification, which refers to the shift in final energy use to electric solutions, includes not only road transport but also electrification of heat, strengthening of grids, supply of critical grid infrastructure, and ultimately its key constituent elements, like copper. Electrification sits on the consumption side of the equation, but is arguably the most impactful value driver of all, helping to absorb geopolitical energy shocks like 2022 and 2026, transform industries and improve economic productivity via more efficient energy conversion. We are moving from an “Age of Combustion” to an “Age of Conduction” - almost imperceptibly at first, then suddenly and irreversibly. 

Today, there is no better example of electrification in action than in road transport, even if that transition is still in its early days. And the leading exponent of that transition today is BYD. So, the question naturally follows: does BYD justify a place in the Energized Portfolio? The answer requires a deep-dive not just on the company itself but the wider EV ecosystem and different forces at play across global car markets at large. Let’s dive in. 

Global EV dynamics: beyond the noise 

The global car market has effectively stopped growing over the past decade. In 2017-18, sales briefly topped 80 million, before slumping over 2019-22 and then recovering to around the same level by 2025. But that doesn’t tell the real story. The key distinction is the drivetrain. Global sales of internal combustion engine (ICE, i.e. petrol and diesel) car sales actually peaked back in 2017 and are already down by around one third since: